The Dems Are Hoping for a Christmas Miracle

Hi Hackaroos!

Well, the Build Back Better countdown continues, with the Dems now targeting Christmas to be the day to give birth to their big agenda. Something tells us that’s probably a stretch, but Gibbs is praying otherwise. That’s where we begin. Next, we discuss the Mark Meadows texts that stunned even a jaded Washington. Then we turn to our favorite developments out of Georgil-vania.

As we approach the holiday season, we want to answer your questions before we head into 2022. So over the next week, please be sure to leave your top musings in the comments section and we’ll be sure to give you our best answers next week! The more the better!

Now let’s begin…

Murphy:

Well, it's the big countdown to Christmas and Gibbsie it's truly rocking the Senate. The Big question is: will they get Joe Biden's Build Back Better By Billions plan enacted before the end of the year? Democrat politicos would sure love that, but as we've noted here before the Senate moves slowly, particularly when there's disagreement, so most Senate observers think it's unlikely. Still, Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is using the end of year expiration of the popular Child Tax Credit as a hammer to try and pull off passage this year. Even by Schumer standards, he is said to be in full whirling dervish mode. Republicans meanwhile are sitting on the side predicting a slow disaster. As usual, it’s all down to Manchin and the enviable big showdown call this week is looming between Manchin and Biden to try to land the deal. How do you see through all this fog, Robert?

Gibbs:

Well, it wouldn't be the Senate if it weren't a deadline and it wouldn't be Congress if we weren't discussing whether or not any of those deadlines meant anything. I do think there are some important economic reasons why getting this done by the end of the year is important for the continuation of the Child Tax Credit and other policies set to expire at year’s end. Then, of course, there’s the important political deadline as well so that Democrats can get on to selling Build Back Better and not just discussing it inside of committee rooms in the halls of Congress. Obviously a lot/all of this depends on where Joe Manchin sits. While he didn’t close the door entirely to getting this legislation done in 2021, I’d still be much more comfortable betting on 2022 given his continued comments about the essential structure of the legislation. Manchin says his concern is programs that Congress doesn’t actually expect to expire existing only for a year or so in the current bill and he focused yesterday on the Child Tax Credit specifically. We'll almost certainly know more about that this week because the one thing more certain than missed deadlines is that negotiations get read out to the public with remarkable specificity in this process.

Murphy:

Yeah, I think you're right about the last minute-ism of the Senate. It’s like the kid who writes his term paper while walking from the school hallway to the teacher’s office to turn it in three days late. It's just the nature of the beast. And the thing I can't figure out is just how much pain Manchin (and to a lesser degree Sinema) want to extract before finally allowing the process to go forward and the bill to pass the Senate. He's ideologically opposed to a bunch of the spending stuff, but does he really want to blow up the whole thing? It’s unclear to me, but we're gonna find out.

Gibbs:

I'm unclear if he's ideologically opposed to this, or if he's simply not ready to shut down the process of being the center of the political universe. And credit where credit is due, Congress did meet the deadline on government funding and seems on course to raise the debt ceiling without calamity. The difference obviously is those missed deadlines have genuine consequences.

Murphy:

Yeah, I think it might be a mix. But he’s definitely one of the most fiscally conservative Democrats. And the scope of this thing is so large, in his view, that he starts to get the shakes every time he talks about it, plus you have inflation surging, which gives more ammunition to the slow down and slim down crowd in the Senate.

Speaking of the economics of it all, Larry Summers — having been an early and, in my view, correct forecaster that all the COVID spending would create a big inflation surge — popped up on CNN and despite his inflation warnings is supporting passage of the $1.7 billion bill, and makes a decent argument in the interview.

Gibbs:

Larry's position on the Build Back Better agenda has been clear for months. Larry's been out saying that there's no inflationary impact to $1.7 billion spread out over 10 years for long-term investments in things lwe truly need.

Murphy:

But Gibbsie, the political problem for the Democrats is inflation is here. Maybe it's transitory, maybe it's not. And in voter math, which is the math that counts in an election year, Big Spending plus Liberal Democrats in office equal inflation and the Republican Party will be pounding on that theme like a slow mule. So politically, these are mine infested waters almost regardless of what the economic reality is.

Gibbs:

I just wish all those Republicans hadn't joined Democrats in inflationary infrastructure spending.

Murphy:

Well, most economists make the argument that infrastructure capital spending is less inflationary because it creates growth.

Gibbs:

So, you're saying to me that all spending may not be linked to inflation?

Murphy:

No, no, Perry Mason, I think transfer payment spending, which just creates big consumer demand is inflationary, particularly when it's combined with super loose monetary policy. But capital spending – like roads and bridges — tend to create economic growth in the long term. Bottom line is inflation is here and the Republicans are going to gleefully blame the Democrats for it and it's going to be an effective political weapon.

Gibbs:

Undoubtedly it’s a weapon and from the polling, a very effective one. I don't know that it will explain the fact that there's inflation in many countries throughout the world, or that somehow, Republicans tying spending habits to the creation of this I'm sure won't be limited to the next Republican President who seeks to slash taxes by trillions of dollars for the wealthy who just need another home. But hey, I get the game. Fiscal concern on Capitol Hill is something that only happens when Democrats are in the White House.

Murphy:

See this is typical liberal chicanery! I bring up a thoughtful point about inflation and now we're already into class warfare. Ha!

Gibbs:

After years of Trump, it’s not altogether easy to have something around him cause genuine surprise in Washington. After all, for four years all you had to do was read Twitter to know everything Trump was thinking. Well, Monday night, something Trump related did surprise. The committee investigating the terrorism of January 6th voted to hold former Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows in contempt of Congress for refusing to testify before the Committee. But before it did so, Rep. Liz Cheney read aloud texts from Donald Trump Jr. and a trifecta of Fox personalities about the need for Trump to do something about what was happening at the Capitol that day. You see, Meadows, a former Congressman who once lambasted those he didn’t feel were taking seriously Congress’ investigative power, had turned over 9,000 documents to the Committee. He then claimed executive privilege around more and stopped any semblance of cooperation. He even refused to answer questions about the documents he did turn over that he wasn’t suggesting were privileged! If what was read aloud to the world last night is what he did give to the Committee, just imagine what he knows is terrible and he’s hiding from view!

GEORGIL-VANIA

Murphy:

Yet another big development in the world of Georgil-vania, Gibbsie! There's just something about Georgia politics and relatives. We all remember Billy Carter, the former title holder in the somewhat embarrassing close relative sweepstakes, but now there's a new contender on the scene. As former gridiron superstar Herschel Walker inches toward the Republican nomination in the Senate race to defeat the Senator Ralph Warnock his son, Christian Walker, has jumped headfirst into the turbulent seas of social media. It started when Christian was mercilessly mocked online for complaining about Biden screwing people with high gas prices, only to be wearing a Givenchy sweatshirt.

But now Christian is fighting back, and, well… see for for yourselves:

I’m sure Walker strategists are just delighted. This kid loves the spotlight so it’s gonna be a thing. And not a good one for candidate Walker.

Gibbs:

Having watched that video, all I can say is oh my. Buckle up everyone, it’s going to a crazy election year! There will be absolutely no shortage of entertainment from Georgia and Pennsylvania.

We’ll be back on Friday with more musings from the Hill to Georgil-vania. In the meantime, don’t forget to leave your holiday season questions for us to answer next week!

Finally, we are thinking of all those impacted by the horrible tornados in Kentucky and beyond. Here’s a great list of resources on how to help.

See you on Friday!

Murphy and Gibbs